Michigan’s Playoff Path Is the Same as Last Year — Just Win the Games You’re Supposed to Win

Everyone’s panicking about Michigan’s brutal 2024 schedule. Here’s the reality: the Wolverines can lose to Ohio State, Oregon, AND Texas and still make the expanded playoff. Who’s actually going to beat them otherwise?

Stop with the hand-wringing about Michigan’s schedule. Just stop.

Yeah, the Wolverines have Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas on the slate. Scary names. Big games. The kind of matchups that make national media types salivate over “toughest schedule” rankings. But here’s what everyone’s missing: Michigan’s path to the College Football Playoff is basically identical to last year.

Win the games you’re supposed to win. That’s it. That’s the formula.

The Schedule Reality Check

Let’s actually run through this thing. Fresno State? Win. Arkansas State? Come on. USC? Not the USC of old — that program is a mess. Minnesota? No. Washington? And this is where people need to pump the brakes.

Washington is NOT the team that played for a national championship. That Washington is gone. Jedd Fisch bounced. Michael Penix bounced. The whole operation got gutted. The Huskies right now? They’re basically back to the version that lost to Montana at home. That’s the Washington we’re talking about. The rebuild is real, and it’s going to be ugly.

Illinois? No. Michigan State? Absolutely not. Indiana? Please. Northwestern? Win.

See the pattern here?

Even the Worst-Case Scenario Works

Here’s where this gets almost laughable. Give Michigan losses in ALL THREE marquee games. Lose to Ohio State. Lose to Oregon. Lose to Texas. You know what happens?

They’re still in.

The 12-team playoff changed everything. Michigan doesn’t need to beat Ohio State this year. They don’t need a signature win against Oregon. They don’t need to knock off Texas. They just need to handle business against the teams they’re clearly better than — and there’s nobody on that schedule outside the big three who’s beating this Michigan team.

It’s actually EASIER than last year because the margin for error is massive now. Last season, one loss to Ohio State and the whole thing could’ve collapsed. Now? Three losses to ranked opponents and you’re probably still dancing.

If They Miss the Playoff, It’s a Disaster

This isn’t anti-Michigan sentiment. This is just math. If the Wolverines somehow don’t make the College Football Playoff this year, something went catastrophically wrong. We’re talking multiple inexplicable losses to teams they should beat by three touchdowns.

That would be a program-defining failure for a team coming off a national championship. Not a “tough year” or “rebuilding season” excuse. A flat-out bad look.

Michigan’s path is clear. The schedule looks intimidating on paper, but the playoff picture is wide open. Just don’t trip over Fresno State or Northwestern and you’re fine. The big games are fun storylines, but they’re almost irrelevant to the actual postseason math.

Win the games you’re favored in. Make the playoff. It’s that simple.

The Takeaways

• Michigan can lose to Ohio State, Oregon, AND Texas and still make the 12-team playoff — the expanded field changes everything
• Washington is NOT the same team that played for a national title — they’re rebuilding from scratch after losing their coach and key players
• If Michigan misses the playoff this year, it’s an inexcusable failure for a defending national champion

Watch the full segment on YouTube: Michigan’s PATH to the College Football Playoff